By Md. Nasir Uddin Chief Report | Dhaka, Bangladesh: Water is rapidly gaining strategic importance in twenty-first-century global politics. For decades, international political debates were largely dominated by territorial disputes, military power, oil, gas and control over natural resources. However, climate change, population growth, food insecurity and the mounting demand for freshwater have brought the world face to face with a new geopolitical reality.
Water is no longer merely an essential requirement for human survival. It is increasingly becoming a decisive factor in national security, economic stability, food production, energy supplies and international diplomacy.
Across different regions of the world, disagreements are intensifying over the distribution of river water, the construction of upstream dams, groundwater extraction and the consequences of climate change. While some countries are experiencing diplomatic tensions over water rights, others are struggling to implement international agreements. At the same time, new initiatives for cooperation are emerging around the sustainable management of shared water resources.
According to the United Nations World Water Development Report 2026, approximately 2.1 billion people worldwide still lack access to safely managed drinking water. Published under the title Water for All People: Equal Rights and Opportunities, the report highlights the unequal distribution of responsibility for water collection. Women and girls collectively spend an estimated 250 million hours every day collecting water.
Source: UN World Water Development Report 2026.
Data from the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026, under Goal 6, indicate that 74 per cent of the global population had access to safely managed drinking water services in 2024. Despite considerable progress, a substantial proportion of humanity remains deprived of this essential service.

The same report states that approximately 10 per cent of the world's population lives in countries experiencing high or critical levels of water stress.
Source: UN Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 – Goal 6.
Why Is Control over Water Becoming a Question of Geopolitical Power?
Geographical position has long been one of the fundamental sources of state power in international relations. Control over maritime routes, energy resources, trade corridors and mineral deposits has traditionally shaped the economic and strategic influence of nations.
Today, however, control over river sources, water flows, dams, reservoirs and groundwater resources is emerging as another critical dimension of geopolitical power.

According to United Nations data, 153 countries share one or more transboundary rivers, lakes or groundwater resources.

Based on 2023 data, only 43 countries had operational arrangements for cooperative water management covering at least 90 per cent of the transboundary basin area within their territories. At least 20 countries had no such operational arrangements.

These figures demonstrate that despite extensive dependence on shared water resources, international cooperation mechanisms remain insufficient in many parts of the world.

Source: UN SDG Report 2026 – Transboundary Water Cooperation.

Analysts point out that unilateral decisions by an upstream country regarding dam construction, water diversion or reservoir operations can significantly affect downstream countries' agriculture, drinking-water supplies, ecosystems and economies.

Consequently, water is no longer simply an environmental concern. It has become closely connected to international relations, sovereign rights and regional security.

The Nile: Diplomatic Tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan

The Nile River has long been at the centre of disputes over water allocation and river management among Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan.

Ethiopia has constructed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, one of the Nile's principal tributaries. Addis Ababa argues that the dam is essential for electricity generation, economic development and national energy security.

Egypt, meanwhile, depends heavily on the Nile. The river is vital to the country's agriculture, drinking-water supply and broader economic activities. Sudan has also expressed concerns regarding dam operations, water storage and river flows.

The central issues include reservoir-filling and operating procedures, water releases during periods of drought, information-sharing arrangements and the establishment of a binding agreement among the three countries.

In the latest diplomatic development, on 2 November 2026, Egypt and Sudan issued a joint position opposing unilateral measures in the Eastern Nile Basin. A statement published by Egypt's official state media emphasised cooperation under international law, prior consultation and the principle of preventing significant harm.
Ethiopia's position and its right to pursue national development, however, remain important dimensions of the dispute.
Source: Egyptian State Information Service – Egypt and Sudan on the Eastern Nile Basin, 2 November 2026.
The dispute demonstrates how the management of a single river can transform the competing national interests of three countries into a complex international diplomatic challenge.
The Indus River: A Test of Water Diplomacy in India-Pakistan Relations
One of South Asia's most significant international water-sharing agreements is the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, signed between India and Pakistan with the World Bank acting as a facilitator.
In April 2025, India announced its decision to hold the treaty in abeyance. The announcement triggered renewed tensions between the two countries over water allocation, the treaty's legal status and the management of river flows.
On 31 August 2026, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), based in The Hague, Netherlands, stated that the Indus Waters Treaty remained in force and that India could not unilaterally free itself from its treaty obligations. The tribunal also issued directions concerning the operation of hydropower projects.
India, however, rejected the tribunal's jurisdiction and its decision, maintaining that the ruling would not alter its position.
A Reuters report published on 31 August 2026 highlighted the tribunal's decision, India's response and Pakistan's position.
Source: Reuters – India Must Uphold Water-Sharing Treaty with Pakistan, 31 August 2026.
The development raises a fundamental question for international water diplomacy: Can countries be expected to honour water-sharing agreements even during periods of severe political and military confrontation?
The Middle East: Water Security and Regional Stability
The Jordan River, the Tigris-Euphrates river system and groundwater reserves are among the major water resources shaping the strategic interests of Middle Eastern countries.

Prolonged droughts, desertification, population growth and limited freshwater supplies are making water security increasingly complex across the region.

Water shortages are affecting agricultural production, food prices, urban livelihoods and population movements. For countries such as Iraq, Syria and Jordan, access to water has become a major economic and social challenge.

However, it would be misleading to interpret every water-related dispute in the Middle East as a direct cause of military conflict. Political rivalries, security concerns, economic inequality and climate-related pressures interact to make the situation increasingly complicated.

Climate Change Is Making Water Geopolitics More Complex

Climate change is altering rainfall patterns, river flows and the availability of freshwater across different parts of the world.

Some regions are experiencing prolonged droughts, while others face excessive rainfall and devastating floods. In several mountainous areas, melting glaciers are also changing the natural patterns of river flows.

The glaciers of the Himalayas, Hindu Kush and Tibetan Plateau are particularly important sources of water for many major Asian rivers. Environmental changes in these regions could have far-reaching consequences for the agriculture, drinking-water supplies and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people across South and East Asia.

The 2025 United Nations World Water Development Report, titled Mountains and Glaciers: Water Towers, identifies mountains and glaciers as critical freshwater reservoirs. It examines the consequences of glacier retreat, climate change and the growing risks to long-term water security.

Source: UNESCO – World Water Development Report 2025.

Against this backdrop, river-flow data sharing, drought and flood forecasting, glacier monitoring and joint disaster-management initiatives are becoming increasingly important areas of international diplomacy.

Water, Food and Energy: Three Pillars of an Interconnected Security Framework

Water is fundamentally interconnected with food production and energy security.

Agriculture depends on reliable water supplies. Water is also essential for hydropower generation, industrial operations and cooling systems at power plants.

According to the United Nations SDG Report 2026, agriculture accounts for approximately 72 per cent of global freshwater withdrawals. This makes efficient water use in agriculture indispensable to achieving global water security.

This reality has strengthened the concept of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus, which recognises that water, energy and food systems cannot be managed independently. Instead, they require integrated planning and coordinated policymaking.

For example, excessive groundwater extraction to increase agricultural production can cause water tables to decline, threatening future supplies. Similarly, retaining river water for hydropower generation can adversely affect downstream agriculture and ecosystems.

Source: United Nations SDG Goal 6 Report 2026.

Why Is Water Diplomacy So Important for Bangladesh?

As a riverine delta nation, Bangladesh is a major stakeholder in international water politics.

The country's agriculture, fisheries, inland navigation, biodiversity, industries and the livelihoods of millions of people depend heavily on its rivers and freshwater resources.

According to information published by the United Nations in Bangladesh, 57 transboundary rivers flow through the country. Their sources and water flows are connected to neighbouring countries.

The Ganges-Padma, Brahmaputra-Jamuna and Meghna river systems form the backbone of Bangladesh's water security.

Source: United Nations in Bangladesh – Bangladesh Joins UN Water Convention, 26 June 2025.

One of the most important challenges facing Bangladesh's water diplomacy is the distribution of Ganges water.

In 1996, Bangladesh and India signed a 30-year Ganges Water Sharing Treaty. According to information published by the Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission, the treaty is due to expire in 2026.

Under the agreement, water from the Ganges at Farakka is shared between the two countries according to an agreed formula during the January-May dry season.

Therefore, negotiations over the renewal of the treaty and the future management of the river are critically important for Bangladesh.

Source: Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission – Ganges/Padma Water Sharing Treaty.

The Teesta River water-sharing issue is equally significant for agriculture and livelihoods in northern Bangladesh.

During the dry season, water shortages affect agricultural production, irrigation systems and the local economy. Although Bangladesh and India have held discussions on the issue for many years, a final agreement has yet to be reached.

Other major challenges include the flow of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river system, river navigability, coastal salinity, declining groundwater levels and river pollution.

Bangladesh's Accession to the UN Water Convention: A New Diplomatic Opportunity

A significant development in Bangladesh's water diplomacy took place on 23 June 2025, when the country joined the United Nations Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes, commonly known as the UN Water Convention.

With this accession, Bangladesh became the first country in South Asia and the 56th country globally to join the convention.

According to the United Nations, the convention provides an international framework for the equitable use of transboundary rivers and groundwater resources, information sharing, environmental protection and cooperation among countries.

Source: United Nations in Bangladesh – Bangladesh Becomes First South Asian Country to Join UN Water Convention.

Membership offers Bangladesh a new opportunity to advance its interests through international law, multilateral diplomacy and science-based approaches to the management of shared water resources.

The Need for International Water Law and Cooperation

Two major international legal frameworks are particularly important in the management of transboundary water resources.

The first is the 1992 UN Water Convention, and the second is the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses.

These frameworks emphasise the principles of equitable and reasonable utilisation of shared water resources, the prevention of significant harm to other states, information exchange and international cooperation.

However, the existence of international legal instruments alone cannot resolve every water dispute. Political commitment, regular dialogue, effective institutions and mutually acceptable dispute-resolution mechanisms are also essential.

United Nations data indicate that although 153 countries share transboundary water resources, significant gaps remain in effective international cooperation.

Establishing transparent and operational cooperative frameworks for international river systems is therefore an urgent global priority.

Source: UNECE – Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes.

UN Water Conference in Abu Dhabi: A New Test for Global Diplomacy

An important international initiative to address the global water crisis will take place at the 2026 United Nations Water Conference in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, from 8 to 10 December 2026.

The conference is co-hosted by the United Arab Emirates and Senegal.

Its official title is 2026 United Nations Water Conference to Accelerate the Implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 6.

The primary objective is to accelerate the implementation of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal of ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.

The conference will focus on six thematic areas:

Water for People

Water for Prosperity

Water for Planet

Water for Cooperation

Water in Multilateral Processes

Investments in Water

World leaders, policymakers, international organisations, researchers, civil society representatives and private-sector stakeholders are expected to participate.

Water security, international cooperation, climate resilience, investment and technological innovation are expected to feature prominently on the agenda.

Official United Nations Conference Website:
https://sdgs.un.org/conferences/water2026/about

Official Conference Website:
https://www.unwaterconferenceuae.com/en/faqs

For Bangladesh, the conference represents an important opportunity to highlight its water-security priorities on the international stage.

Key issues requiring attention include the Ganges and Teesta water-sharing arrangements, equitable utilisation of transboundary rivers, climate-related risks to delta regions, freshwater shortages in coastal areas and international financing for water infrastructure development.

Five Potential Transformations in Water Diplomacy in the Years Ahead

An analysis of emerging international trends suggests five major developments that could reshape global water diplomacy.

First, water will increasingly become a component of national security.

Countries will integrate water-resource management into their broader security strategies to safeguard food production, drinking-water supplies, agriculture and industrial operations.

Second, river-basin diplomacy will become increasingly important.

Where multiple countries depend on the same river system, bilateral negotiations alone may prove insufficient. Broader multilateral cooperation will become essential.

Third, international investment in water infrastructure will become increasingly necessary.

Financing for water-treatment facilities, rainwater harvesting, efficient irrigation, flood control and groundwater recharge will be critical to strengthening water security.

Fourth, technology will introduce a new dimension to water diplomacy.

Satellite monitoring, artificial intelligence, meteorological forecasting and real-time river-flow observation can improve transparency, strengthen information-sharing and build trust among countries.

Fifth, water diplomacy will become more closely integrated with climate diplomacy.

Glacier retreat, droughts, floods, rising sea levels and changing river flows will increasingly feature in international negotiations and climate-policy discussions.

Will Water Become a Source of Conflict or a Bridge to Peace?

One important point in the international debate over water is that water scarcity does not automatically lead to war.

Shared water resources can also create opportunities for cooperation, regional stability and long-term diplomatic partnerships.

History shows that countries sharing the same river systems have sometimes experienced serious disputes, while in other cases they have established long-term cooperative arrangements.

The joint management of the Senegal River Basin by several African countries is a notable example of regional cooperation.

The 2026 UN SDG Report emphasises the importance of international cooperation in managing shared water resources. Effective cooperation can contribute to peace, climate resilience, environmental protection, food security and energy security.

Source: UN SDG Report 2026 – Goal 6.

Conclusion

Throughout the history of international politics, natural resources have played a decisive role in shaping state power, economic interests and diplomatic relations.

During the twentieth century, oil and other energy resources emerged as major determinants of global political and strategic competition. In the twenty-first century, water is steadily becoming an equally significant subject of international debate.

However, unlike oil, water cannot be viewed merely as a commodity to be bought and sold in the marketplace. It is a fundamental resource directly linked to human life, food production, environmental sustainability, public health and the long-term survival of nations.

Countries capable of managing their water resources effectively, establishing constructive agreements with neighbouring states and adapting to climate-related risks will be better positioned to protect their long-term economic and social stability.

Conversely, unequal water distribution, unilateral water diversion, river pollution and weak implementation of international agreements could intensify regional tensions.

With 153 countries dependent on shared transboundary water resources, water can no longer be treated solely as a domestic issue. For delta nations such as Bangladesh, the challenge is even more critical, as national water security is deeply interconnected with cooperation among neighbouring countries, international law, climate adaptation and multilateral diplomacy.

Therefore, it may be too early to declare whether water will become the single most important diplomatic issue in tomorrow's world politics. Nevertheless, there is compelling evidence that it is emerging as one of the central issues shaping international security, economic stability and diplomatic relations.

In the world of tomorrow, the struggle for equitable access to water may become just as consequential as the competition for political and economic power.

Ultimately, the future of global water security will depend on whether nations choose confrontation or cooperation, unilateral control or equitable sharing, and political rivalry or the effective implementation of international law.